Climate: Paris Agreement target missed with hottest January on record

January 2024 broke the record for the hottest January on record, capping off a sustained twelve-month period where the average global temperature exceeded the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement.

The average global air temperature for January reached 13.14°C, an increase of 1.66°C on the estimated January average for the 1850-1900 pre-industrial reference period, the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reported on Thursday.

January capped off the first twelve-month period on record where the global mean temperature rose above 1.5°C as compared to the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.

This constituted the first sustained breach of the 2015’s UN Paris Agreement, which sought to “strengthen the global response to climate change . . . while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C degrees.”

Copernicus is an EU-funded Earth observation programme, utilising satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world.

January in Ireland

Ireland experienced a cold, sunny and dry January. Met Éireann reported that nine stations across the island saw prolonged dry spells. The weather shifted in the second half of the month, with Storms Isha and Jocelyn bringing heavy rain, gale-force winds, and localised flooding.

Storm Isha saw violent winds of up to 74 knots (137 km/h) at Mace Head, Co Galway, according to Met Éireann. More than 170,000 households suffered from power outages, with Co Galway among those most affected. The storm tore out trees and toppled a lamppost in Galway City.

According to Dr. Paul Leahy, member of the MaREI research centre for Energy, Climate and Marine research, coastal cities like Galway are particularly defenseless against storms.       

“They are vulnerable … to localised flooding, sea-level rise, and storm surges arising from wind-driven waves.”

Coastal engineering projects had proven effective at mitigating storm-incurred damage. However, certain experts argue in favour of letting low-priority areas of eroded coastland be reclaimed by the sea.   

“Change in the coastal area is inevitable,” said John Sweeney, Professor Emeritus at Maynooth University’s Department of Geography.

“Seeking to protect rural coastlines from increased erosion is not cost effective. Agricultural land will have to be abandoned where erosion is accelerating,” he said.

Causes of Warming

Climate change is mainly attributed to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with the EU pledging to lower GHG emissions by 55 per cent by 2030.  

In Ireland reduction of GHG emissions has faced political and economic obstacles.  

“The major sectors not performing are agriculture and transport,” Professor Sweeney said.

“The former accounts for 38.4% of total emissions, mainly methane from livestock farming.”

However, according to Professor Sweeney, limiting or reducing the number of dairy cattle has proven “politically unpalatable.”

In regards to transport, he noted that progress in shifting to electric vehicles has been largely cancelled out by rising emissions from SUVs and other fuel-inefficient vehicles.

“The carbon budget limit . . . for the period 2021-2025 looks unlikely to be achieved,” he said.