US primary elections underway: expat voters in Ireland could tip the scales
With the primary elections underway in the US presidential race, bitter rivals President Biden and Donald Trump may once again go head-to-head for the title of America’s Head of State.
Amidst a highly contentious race, political analysts posit that US expat voters could be the untapped political powerhouse capable of tipping the scales. Approximately 3 million US voters live outside of US territory. Ireland is home to 13,412 US citizens according to 2022 census data.
Voting from Ireland
“I usually vote with Democrats Abroad,” said Olivia Egan, US citizen and Galway resident. Like many Americans, Olivia moved to Galway to study and has stayed ever since.
“I may be abroad, but I will definitely vote in the primaries and the general. I’ve voted in every election from Ireland since 2015,” she said.
Founded in 1964, Democrats Abroad is “the official organisation of the Democratic Party for United States citizens living temporarily or permanently abroad.” The Democratic National Committee grants the organisation state-level recognition. Republicans Overseas is its counterpart.
For US citizens that find themselves temporarily outside of the US during the time of elections, they can apply for absentee ballots via the post. However, they must be registered to vote in a state.
During the 2020 general elections, non-military Americans abroad cast 224,139 votes – a record high. This ‘high’ turnout however, only translated to a voting rate of 7.8 per cent. Ireland fared slightly higher than the world average, ranking 19th for US voter turnout with 17.81 per cent of eligible voters participating.
Political parties have struggled for decades to motivate their compatriots to vote. “When running a campaign, both parties tend to focus their resources within US territory,” said Michael Pierce, Government Affairs Manager based out of Washington, DC. “The pandemic changed the game. We saw how powerful absentee ballots can be.”
Americans abroad hold the power to influence US elections in a big way, especially students. Democrats Abroad estimates that between 10,000 and 15,000 American students will be in Ireland during the next election either studying abroad or completing a full degree.
Despite increased efforts, the turnout rate has remained low. American expats cited lack of infrastructure and information as major barriers that prevent them from voting.
“The information [on how to vote] is not very accessible,” said Ms Egan. “I was just looking up again how to vote and the process is confusing.”
But Ms Egan clarified that she plans to vote and, “will do whatever it takes to make sure Trump isn’t re-elected.”
Trump v Biden 2.0
Under the US political system, presidential candidates are chosen via primary elections held by each state before moving onto the general election in November. The two major parties–the Republicans and the Democrats–select their candidate for the general election based on the winners of the state primaries.
Since the primaries began on 15 January, Trump managed to secure the Republican nomination in both Iowa and New Hampshire, edging out his competitors, inching closer to a return to the White House.
Republican candidate and current Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis dropped out of the race after the very first primary in Iowa, immediately endorsing Trump.
“I signed a pledge to support the Republican nominee, and I will honour that pledge,” said Governor DeSantis in his concession speech, continuing to say that Trump is a much more favorable candidate to the incumbent President Biden.
“The US electorate has shifted,” said Mr Pierce. “Another Trump administration is definitely possible.”
Trump, however, faces a smattering of lawsuits, including a civil case by the New York Attorney general as well as four other criminal indictments. Several states have attempted to keep him off the ballot, citing his involvement in the insurrection on 6 January 2021.
Meanwhile, President Biden’s approval rate hovers at about 39.8% according to Gallup Polls – an historic low for any sitting US President. In Ireland, public opinion of Biden has also diminished significantly in the past few months, particularly around the issue of the conflict in Gaza.
The Future of US-Irish Relations
“Biden is completely hard-headed about his politics,” said Professor Liam Kennedy, head of the Clinton Institute at UCD and expert in US-Irish relations. “Biden has clearly shown where his loyalty lies, and that’s with Israel.”
For Professor Kennedy, despite a drop in popularity amongst the Irish public, says as far as official diplomatic relations go, “The US continues to be a strong ally.” For other issues, like climate change, the Biden administration is more aligned with Irish priorities according to Professor Kennedy.
During his administration. President Biden has prioritised trade and investment between the US and Ireland. On his highly publicised visit to Ireland in early 2023, President Biden pointed out that the two nations share upwards of $1 trillion in bilateral trade and investments.
“Let’s just say relations improved significantly after 2020,” he said, feeling that a change in administration will have an impact in Ireland.
He said, “US elections are very unique in that whoever is the new president is making decisions that impact the whole world.”
